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The answerers were asked questions about the following matters: 39 1. Importance of 25 factors in the recent trend1 . 2. Importance of 25 factors in the previous trend2 . 3. Forecasts which each dealer made before the trend changed. The 25 factors are economic activities, price, short-term interests, money supply, trade balance, employment, personal consumption, intervention, markdollar rates, commodities, stock, bonds, chart trends (1 week), chart trends (over 1 month), attitude of band of Japan, attitude of FRB, attitude of export and import firms, attitude of insurance firms, attitude of securities firms, attitude of other banks, attitude of foreign investors, the other factor.

In this model, the fitness value of each chromosome is calculated using the difference between its forecast mean and this week’s rate as the equation. Hence, the more precisely a chromosome predicts the rate, the higher its fitness value. 15) j wi,t xi,t − ∆St |. i=1 We use the usual single-point crossover and the mutation operator with uniform probability. , mutation rate, pmut). Genetic algorithm can be interpreted economically as follows: Each chromosome can be regarded as an agent’s belief system about the exchange rate.

1 Observation at the Micro Level In order to investigate actual dealers’ behavior, we carried out both interviews and questionnaires with actual dealers. The aims of these two methods are 33 different. The interviews provide time series data of temporal change of dealers’ rules, while the questionnaires provide snapshot data of distributed patterns of dealers’ rules (fig. 1). 1: Overview of observation at the micro level The main purpose of the interviews is to trace the temporal change of the dealers’ learning and decision making process.

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A C^0 estimate for nearly umbilical surfaces by Lellis C., Muller S.

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